Porto Alegre, December 1, 2020 – The soybean planting is relatively delayed regionally or, at least, started late. For now, the production forecast for the second corn crop, together with the profile of the planted area, remains very optimistic, with no reversal of any trend in general.
As we pointed out in our previous crop update, at the end of October, the area planted with soybeans already guaranteed most of the area needed for planting cotton and corn in producing regions. In November, the soybean planting advanced in the first half of the year, which created the possibility of a second crop planted entirely in 2021.
Between October and November, however, the climate was not favorable either in several locations for soybeans, from western Paraná to northern Goiás. Many areas with up to three replantings and some areas giving up soybeans so as not to miss the planting window of cotton, as in the west and south of Mato Grosso. If there are soybean crop losses in December, growers can choose to still replant soybeans if there are seeds or bring forward the planting of the 2021 second crop. This is not yet the case, but it might happen in case of a disaster with the summer soybean crops in the Midwest region.
The expectation of a larger area with the second corn crop corn remains strong, with a 6.2% increase from 2020. The climatic issue involving the development of soybeans in the coming weeks and in the harvest in February/March could determine even an advance in area with double-digit growth for the second corn crop of 2021. Undoubtedly, the question of market prices and the climate for the first half will be decisive for an even larger planted area with corn.
Good rain will occur in Paraguay this week. Possibly we will also have a window, a little later, but still quite viable for the planting of the second crop in the country in February and March.
The question of the 2021 second crop, therefore, throughout Brazil is the later planting, which, so far, has not compromised the volume of area to be cultivated. Maybe some technology is compromised due to the planting schedule, but not the area to be cultivated. Depending on the soybean harvest, climate, and prices, we can see the area growing above 10% in Brazil in 2021. On the other hand, a late planting reveals a late harvest. A few growers will be able to plant corn in January, and the vast majority will have a window in February and the first half of March.
This later planting implies a slightly lower yield potential in each region. However, that places crops in a greater range of climatic risk. Losses cannot be estimated before they occur. Therefore, the Brazilian fall/winter climate will be fundamental for the conception of the size of this 2021 Brazilian crop, with the current projection of a record second corn crop of 83.7 million tons.
Agência SAFRAS Latam
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