Despite firmness, physical coffee market faces difficulty in closing deals

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The decline in the dollar almost held back the coffee’s bullish momentum, but it was not enough to contain the momentum brought by the new rally on ICE. As a result, the physical price of coffee tested new highs, and the market entered a region favorable to sellers. Good cup is around BRL850 a bag in southern Minas Gerais, reaching BRL 860 a bag in Mogiana. The market raises its performance level upwards, which is the opposite behavior of the market at the crop start.

 The finest cups reach BRL 900 a bag in Cerrado, confirming the change in the physical price status. The scarcity of available supply has even led some trading companies to pay more for available coffee than in commitments for delivery in September 2021. This is explained by the difficulty with some descriptions for immediate shipment, given the short supply and the sellers’ retraction.

Growers, well-capitalized, intensify the bet on the high, aiming at BRL 1,000 a bag for the best coffees – a supposed trigger for sales. The ‘weather market’ must continue to drive the market. And be careful with this kind of trigger, as it ends up covering up important opportunities.

Weaker cups also gained value. Rio coffee with 20% of defects in the region of Matas de Minas rose to BRL 650 per bag, following the ICE and finding support also with the fear of supply. The dry climate, which has prevailed in the harvest so far, must reduce the supply of weaker cups, which intensifies the dispute between exporters and the domestic industry.

Finally, conillon type 7/8 in Colatina, Espírito Santo, is rising to BRL 460 a bag. The harvest progress, 12% higher this year, generates some pressure. However, the increased demand, given the glaring price difference against arabica, serves as a factor that should limit losses.

Domestic industry changes blend to reduce cost

The domestic industry continues to work on a hand-to-mouth basis, increasing positions with conillon, arabica Rio and looking for lots of good cups in the early season, even with a high level of defects and green beans. The focus is to guarantee supply and reduce costs.

The expectation is that the improvement in the weather and the advance of the crop will make room for a negative correction in the price line. Hard cup with 600 defects is indicated at BRL 770 per bag, which induces a change in the blend of local industries, with a higher percentage of conillon and weaker arabica.