The most recent data on Brazil’s agricultural GVP for sugarcane in 2020, with values calculated for the month of May this year, point to a value of BRL 61.91 billion, up 1.43% from BRL 61.03 billion in 2019. This level of gain in the annual comparison is well below what was observed in the month earlier, when projections indicated an increase of 2.53% in the cane GVP compared to 2019.
Between April and May, the cane GVP was practically unchanged, decreasing only 0.01% while the total GVP of crops grew 1.67%, and total GVP of agribusiness 0.97%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA), the value is the highest since the beginning of the historical series of 1989, with prices already deflated. Crops grew by 11% (BRL 469.8 billion) and animal agriculture by 3.9% (in BRL 234 billion). Also according to MAPA, the record grain crop, estimated at 250.5 million tons, agricultural prices, and the favorable performance of some crops, such as coffee and sugarcane, were decisive in the values obtained by the GVP.
From the month of July, when MAPA updates its figures for June, it will be possible to observe a more solid resumption of the cane GVP through the gains observed in the exports of VHP sugar, with high premiums at ports, and of hydrated and anhydrous ethanol in the physical market. The only cane by-product that did not show significant gains was crystal sugar with up to Icumsa 150, which even so remained practically stable over the last two months, having a neutral influence on the formation of prices of cane by-products. Therefore, of the four products derived from the crop, three had significant gains, and only one remained neutral, thereby exerting no bearish pressure on the GVP of cane.
Returning to the most recent data, we observe that between April and May there was a negative adjustment of BRL 90 thousand, or -0.01% compared to BRL 61.919 billion estimated for the GVP of cane for 2020 in the previous month. The cane GVP, currently at BRL 61.910 billion for 2020, accounts for 13.18% of the total value of crops, estimated at BRL 469.80 billion, which is below the 13.40% observed in the previous month. Losses in the participation of sugarcane in relation to total crops were relatively stable because this total GVP of crops had a negative adjustment in the margin, at the same intensity in the period, also decreasing by 1.67% YoY or BRL 7.71 million.
As a comparison, soybeans, with an estimated GVP of BRL 167.67 billion in 2020, tend to represent 35.69% of the total GVP of crops, above the range of 35.41% of the previous month, while corn, with BRL 75.84 billion, must account for 16.14%, above the level of 16.58% observed in the previous month. Coffee, with a GVP of BRL 20.07 billion, must represent 5.97% of the total GVP of crops, above the level of 5.94% seen in the previous month.
Looking only at the total GVP of crops in 2020, of BRL 469.808 billion, we can see a decrease of 0.48% from the year earlier, which hits BRL 423.179 billion. Between April and May, there was a positive adjustment of BRL 7.71 billion, or +1.67% compared to the estimate of BRL 462.09 billion observed in the previous month. On the side of total GVP of agribusiness, which includes crops and animal agriculture, we can see the value of BRL 703.804 billion, up 8.54% from BRL 648.41 billion in 2019. In the margin there was a positive adjustment of BRL 6.77 billion, or +0.97%.