Porto Alegre, June 15 2021 – Brazilian soybean exports must hit 86 mln tons in 2021, above the 82.97 mln projected for 2020. The forecast is part of the update on the Brazilian supply and demand, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on June 7. The combination of strong Chinese demand and a new super crop must result in a new record for Brazilian exports.
SAFRAS indicates the crushing at 46.7 mln tons in 2021 and 46.85 mln tons in 2020, unchanged. SAFRAS indicates imports of 600 thousand tons in 2021, down 27%.
For the 2021 season, the total soybean supply must rise by 3%, going to 140.62 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 136.1 mln tons, up 2% from the previous year. Thus, ending stocks must rise 60%, from 2.83 to 4.52 mln tons.
With regard to by-products, SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production at 35.76 mln tons, 5% lower. Exports must remain stable at 17 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.45 mln, down 8%. Stocks must rise 90% to 2.77 mln tons. The reduction in the mandatory blending of biodiesel in diesel is a fundamental factor to explain the likely reduction in crushing and the consequent lower production of soymeal and soyoil this season.
Soyoil production must fall 1% to 9.45 mln tons. Brazil will likely export 1 mln tons, down 10% from the previous year. Domestic consumption must rise from 8.54 to 8.95 mln tons. Biodiesel use must drop 3% to 4.5 mln tons. Stocks must fall 64% to 167 thousand tons.
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