Irregular rain, in some coffee regions, during the first quarter of 2021, followed by dry weather in April and in most of May, has jeopardized the already low productive potential of the Brazilian crop this year. Irregular moisture affects graining, increasing the appearance of malformed beans, which lowers productivity by requiring more beans to make up a processed coffee bag. The fact is that the long drought mainly affects areas of arabica, precisely the regions that most felt the impact of the alternating biennial load and the adverse climate in the post-blossoming period (temperatures well above normal and little rain).
SAFRAS adjusted the projection for Brazil’s 2021 crop to 56.50 million bags, indicating a 19% decline. Arabica production is estimated at 34.70 million bags, down 31% from the previous season. In the case of conillon, the situation is quite different. The water situation is more comfortable, and the harvest has developed more smoothly and must confirm initial expectations. The most optimistic estimates even point to positive surprises. In general, the country must produce 21.80 million bags of conillon, up 12% from last year. The larger crop of conillon helps to mitigate the effect of arabica losses on total production.