It is natural that the harvest progress and greater supply availability will result in an improvement in the trading pace. That is exactly what happened last month. There is indeed no rush on the growers’ side. Most of them are even more concerned with physical deliveries of business closed in advance with future positions. Growers keep controlling the flow and managing their positions, but the simple fact that more lots appear for sale helped to give a little more dynamism to commercialization.
Until July 13, sales of the 21/22 crop reached 48% of the expected production, according to SAFRAS’ monthly monitoring. The percentage of sales is well above the same period last year, when 40% of the crop had been sold by growers. The sales flow is also well above the 5-year average of around 33% for the period. Another factor that justifies the resumption of sales by growers was the price rebound in June due to the threat of frost in Brazil and also with the rise of the dollar against the real. This new moment, favorable to sellers, in combination with the previous ones, explains this very accelerated commercial performance in the 21/22 season.
Arabica sales reach 48% of Brazil’s 2021 crop, well above the average for the period of 32%, and also higher than the percentage committed in the same period last year, when 42% had been sold. Sales were not only more intense because growers backed off a little in the face of doubts about production. Demand has also cooled a bit. There are reports of buyers, especially from the US, who asked to postpone shipments (closed for the 3rd quarter) more to the end of the year or even to the first half of 2022. The reason is the high costs and the lack of containers. And that helps to take some weight off demand in the short term.
But the highlight in June and early July was the conillon selling flow. Demand from the domestic industry, particularly for roast and ground coffee, helped to boost prices in the domestic market, bringing back more sellers to the market, accelerating the selling pace. Thus, conillon sales reach 47% of the 21/22 crop, up 13% from May, easily surpassing the 36% sold in the same period last year and the average of 34% until June. The larger crop reaped this year and the return of conillon prices to the level of BRL 500 per bag serve to stimulate sales.