Sugarcane crop accentuates decline, and ethanol demand keeps recovering


    Porto Alegre, November 03, 2020 – A report from the first half of October shows a gradual beginning of the off-season with 24 mills ending activities beyond the expansion of the negative slope of the supply curve, in both cane crush and production of derivatives. In the meantime, the demand curve for hydrated ethanol remains high, with minimum projections of maintenance of the level of sales of 1.7 billion liters per month.

     Unica’s most recent biweekly report for the first half of October brought an important update on the most recent portrait of the 2020/21 crop in the region. Albeit brief in information in its textual part, except for the descriptions of tables, the report itself was important due to the indication of the gradual beginning of the off-season, at least for the first 24 mills that have already closed their activities in the first half of October. Of course, this is a very early movement, but it also shows that the weather without rain in the last few months allowed the acceleration of the cane crush process in the Center-South, which reached record levels, besides maintaining the Total Reducing Sugar (TRS) with very high concentration levels.

   Therefore, the message is very clear: No panic! The update of the biweekly report of the Center-South crush still at the end of the morning of Tuesday, 27, preceded the update of the new report entitled ‘Zoom’ promoted by the same entity. In this report, the same notion of the accelerated pace of production and high productivity of TRS stands out. However, SAFRAS & Mercado draws special attention to signs made by the technical director that it is necessary to monitor the problems that dry weather can bring to the next crop. The detail is in the keywords ‘dry weather’, ‘problems’ and ‘next crop’, already indicating possible weather risks ahead. However, SAFRAS & Mercado warns that the most recent map of weather anomaly for Brazil, which covers October, November, and December, indicates a very rainy summer season, mainly in December, when precipitation must hit around 200 mm above the average of the region.