USDA projects still tight US soybean stocks in 2021/22


     Porto Alegre, May 18 2021 – The May supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Wednesday (12), drew the market’s attention last week. The May report disclosure is always surrounded by great expectations, as it traditionally brings the Department’s first projections for the new season in the United States and the world. USDA did not bring major surprises in its first figures, despite slight changes from the market expectations. Anyway, the positive bias has been confirmed due to the estimate of US stocks still tight in the new season.

     The report indicated that the US soybean crop must stand at 4.405 billion bushels in 2021/22, equivalent to 119.88 million tons. The market expected 4.441 billion bushels or 120.86 million tons.

     Final stocks are estimated at 140 million bushels or 3.81 million tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 132 million bushels or 3.59 million tons.

     USDA indicated the crushing at 2.225 billion bushels (60.55 million tons) and exports at 2.075 billion (56.47 million tons).

     For the 2020/21 season, USDA maintained the projection of carryover stocks of 120 million bushels, equivalent to 3.27 million tons. The market was betting on stocks of 118 million bushels or 3.21 million tons.

     With regard to the global framework, the Department projected a global soybean crop in 2021/22 with 385.53 million tons. Final stocks are estimated at 91.1 million tons. The market was waiting for final stocks of 88.8 million tons.

     The USDA projects the US crop with 119.88 million tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 144 million tons. Argentina’s output is estimated at 52 million tons. Chinese imports must hit 103 million tons.

     For the 2020/21 season, the estimate for the world crop was 362.95 million tons. Carryover stocks are projected at 86.55 million tons. The market was betting on stocks of 86.9 million tons.

     Brazil’s production was maintained at 136 million tons, within the market’s expectations. The Argentine crop was cut from 47.5 to 47 million tons. The market was expecting 46.7 million tons. The forecast for Chinese imports was maintained at 100 million tons.

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