USDA raises US and world soybean stocks

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     Porto Alegre, June 15, 2021 – The June supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 10th, focused the market’s attention last week. Although the market did not expect major changes in the numbers for the current and new seasons, some adjustments drew attention, also affecting Chicago. The report was considered bearish by bringing an increase to the US and world stocks for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons.

     The USDA’s survey indicated that the US soybean crop must reach 4.405 billion bushels in 2021/22, equivalent to 119.88 mln tons. The market expected 4.414 billion or 120.13 mln tons. There was no change in comparison with the May survey.

     Ending stocks are estimated at 155 mln bushels or 4.22 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 139 mln bushels or 3.78 mln tons. In May, the number was 140 mln bushels or 3.81 mln tons.

     USDA indicated the crushing at 2.225 billion bushels (60.55 mln tons) and exports of 2.075 billion (56.47 mln tons), unchanged from the previous figure.

     For the 2020/21 season, USDA raised carryover stocks from 120 mln bushels, equivalent to 3.27 mln tons, to 135 mln bushels or 3.67 mln tons. The market was betting on stocks of 122 mln bushels or 3.32 mln tons. The US stockpiles of both seasons result from a cut in the crushing forecast for the 2020/21 season, which is now estimated at 59.194 mln tons (59.602 mln tons in the May report).

     Concerning the world picture, the report projected a global soybean crop of 385.52 mln tons in 2021/22. Final stocks are estimated at 92.55 mln tons. The market was expecting ending stocks of 91.6 mln tons. In May, USDA indicated the production of 385.53 mln and stocks of 91.1 mln tons.

     USDA projects the US crop with 119.88 mln tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 144 mln tons. Argentina’s crop is estimated at 52 mln tons. Chinese imports must reach 103 mln tons. The numbers are the same as in the previous report.

     For the 2020/21 season, the estimate for the world crop was 364.07 mln tons. Carryover stocks are projected at 88 mln tons. The market was betting on stocks of 86.7 mln tons.

     The production in Brazil was increased from 136 to 137 mln tons, above the market’s expectations of 136.2 mln. The Argentine crop was maintained at 47 mln tons. The market was betting on a crop of 46.5 mln tons. The forecast for Chinese imports remained at 100 mln tons.

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