USDA to reduce forecasts for 2021/22 US soybean crop and stocks


     Porto Alegre, July 13, 2021 – The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) must lower its estimate for the US soybean crop in 2021/22 in its July supply and demand report. The report is being released this Monday.

     Analysts consulted by international agencies bet on the production of 4.374 bln bushels (119.04 mln tons) in 2021/22. In June, the forecast was 4.405 bln bushels (119.88 mln tons). Last year, production hit 4.135 bln bushels (112.54 mln tons).

     For stocks, the market estimates 140 mln bushels (3.81 mln tons). In June, USDA indicated stocks at 155 mln bushels (4.22 mln tons). The forecast for 2020/21 must increase from 135 mln bushels (3.67 mln tons) to 136 mln bushels (3.70 mln tons).

     Regarding the global supply and demand for soybeans, the market bets on ending stocks in 2021/22 with 92.3 mln tons, against 92.6 mln estimated in June. For 2020/21, the forecast must decrease from 88 to 87.6 mln tons.

     The Brazilian soybean production in 2020/21 must have its estimate maintained at 137 mln tons. The Argentine crop may fall from 47 to 46.4 mln tons. Estimates for the production of both Brazil and Argentina for the 2021/22 season must not change.

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