With firm exports, Brazilian soybean stocks must remain low in 2021


Porto Alegre, November 30, 2020The latest picture of supply and demand for soybeans, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on November 27, points to an increase in exports and tightening stocks in 2020 and 2021. For 2021, the forecast is for an increase in carryover stocks, but with the maintenance of a large volume of soybean exports.

Brazilian soybean exports must total 83 million tons in 2021, up from the 82.8 million projected for 2020. In the previous survey, released in September, the numbers were 82.5 million tons for both seasons.

Although exports must increase in 2021 according to the new estimate, they are not expected to surpass the 2018 record. It is possible that Brazil will again lose a share of Chinese purchases to the United States, given that the commercial relationship between the USA and China may improve with the arrival of the new U.S. president. This may prevent a new record in exports. It is also important to highlight that the current estimates do not consider production losses that may occur in the Brazilian crop.

SAFRAS estimates the crush at 45.7 million tons in 2021 and 44.5 million tons in 2020, representing an increase of 3% between one season and another.

Regarding the 2021 season, the total supply of soybeans should rise by 2% to 133.853 million tons. The total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 132.3 million tons, up 1% from the previous year. Thus, final stocks would rise 736%, from 186 thousand to 1.553 million tons.

SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production of 34.98 million tons, with an increase of 2%. Exports are expected to rise 2% to 17.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.35 million, an increase of 2%. Stocks are expected to rise 9% to 1.603 million tons.

Soyoil production will likely rise 2% to 9.2 million tons. Brazil must export 800 thousand tons, down 27% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 8.31 to 8.62 million tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to rise 6% to 4.5 million tons. Stocks are forecast to drop by 57% to 97 thousand tons.