With strong exports of soybeans, Brazil must have tightening stocks in the new season


     Porto Alegre, August 11, 2020 – Brazilian soybean exports must hit 83 million tons in 2021, up 2% from the volume of 2020, projected at 81 million tons. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand estimate, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on August 5.

     With Brazil expected to have a new record crop in 2021, exports must keep growing in the face of firm demand from China. The demand for biodiesel and meat exports is expected to lead to a higher crush. As a result, stocks tend to remain tight.

     SAFRAS indicates the crush at 45 million tons in 2021, and 44 million tons in 2020, accounting for an increase of 2% between one season and another.

     In relation to the 2021 season, the total supply of soybeans must rise by 3% to 134.026 million tons. The total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 131.6 million tons, up 2% from the previous year. Thus, final stocks should rise 11%, from 2.185 to 2.426 million tons.

     SAFRAS projects the soymeal production at 34.6 million tons, 2% higher. Exports must fall 1% to 16.7 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.2 million, up 4%. Stocks are expected to rise 38% to 2.529 million tons.

     Soyoil production is expected to rise 2% to 9.1 million tons. Brazil must export 760 thousand tons, down 20% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 8.23 to 8.40 million tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to rise 6% to 4.55 million tons. The forecast is for a 6% decrease in stocks to 167 thousand tons.

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